NBA summer leagues shed more light on the draft

Basketball Betting Lines

07/16/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This year's rookie crop got its first taste of the NBA in the recently completed Orlando Summer League and the one in Las Vegas which concludes on Sunday. Though it's not the competition the player will see in the regular season, you can still get a good feel of the skill and talent level in this setting.

In watching these games, it wasn't difficult to come away with some of the steals and blunders of the draft. Here's some of the talent that stood out to me in good and bad ways:

WASHINGTON WIZARDS: John Wall exhibited the talent that earned him the first overall pick, but the point guard will have to cut down on the high turnover totals that plagued him in college along with working on his perimeter game.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS: Evan Turner, by his own admission, struggled pretty badly in Orlando. He was used to controlling the ball at Ohio State and didn't seem comfortable playing off the ball with Jrue Holliday running the offense. Holliday, by the way, looks like he's really ready to make a real impact this season.

NEW JERSEY NETS: Power forward Derrick Favors looked like the project he was labeled before the draft. He needs a lot of work on his post-up game and mid- range jumper. I think DeMarcus Cousins would've been a better choice at this spot. New Jersey's second pick of the first round, Damion James, was very impressive and looks like he's ready to make more of an impact than Favors in his first season.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES: Wesley Johnson had problems creating his own shot off the dribble, which is something you definitely don't want to see from the fourth overall pick in the draft. I have a strong feeling the T-wolves will regret this selection.

SACRAMENTO KINGS: Sacramento has to be thrilled with the play of Cousins, its first-round pick. He scored inside and out, rebounded and passed the ball extremely well while showing a really good feel for the game. The former Kentucky center could turn out to be the second-best player in the draft.

DETROIT PISTONS: Greg Monroe did not look comfortable working in the low post. He appears to have a small forward's game in a power forward's body.

UTAH JAZZ: A lot of people questioned Utah's selection of Gordon Hayward with the ninth overall pick, and his play in Orlando showed why. He struggled to get his shot off and his lack of foot speed hurt him on defense. I thought Paul George would have been a much better choice than Hayward.

INDIANA PACERS: Speaking of George, he was clearly one of the standout players in the summer league. His athleticism, size and length will be assets along with his excellent basketball skills. George was selected 10th overall, but looks like he should have gone a bit higher. And speaking of going higher, Indiana's second-round pick (40th overall), Lance Stephenson, looks like he should have gone much earlier in the draft. Character questions scared off a lot of teams, but there doesn't seem to be much doubt about his skill set.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS: The defending champs didn't select until 43rd and 58th picks overall, but it looks like they came away with some NBA talent in small forward Devin Ebanks and power forward Derrick Caracter. Ebanks showed good play on both ends of the floor, while Caracter's play had me wondering how this kid lasted until the third-to-last pick in the draft. He can score with either hand around the basket, has a nice mid-range touch and showed the ability to pass the ball out of the post, which is helpful in the Lakers' triangle offense.

BOSTON CELTICS: Luke Harangody was one of the standouts in summer league play and looks like one of the draft's big steals after being taken 52nd overall. The Notre Dame power forward showed the willingness to bang inside and the ability to step outside and hit 3-pointers.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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