K.C. hopes to build on win vs. Man United in league play vs. TFC

Soccer Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - Kansas City, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It has been a disappointing season to so for the Kansas City Wizards, but the Major League Soccer club is hoping it can use a 2-1 win in an exhibition against English premier League side Manchester United this past Sunday as a stepping stone when it hosts Toronto FC on Saturday.

"It was definitely a big game for our organization," Kansas City manager Peter Vermes said. "Having the opportunity to play Manchester United, arguably the best club team in the world, was a huge accomplishment for the Kansas City area. It was tremendous to have 50,000 fans show their support at this game. I am extremely proud of the team for how they played during the game. To have the courage and competitive drive to stay ahead for 55 minutes while a man down was big."

The Wizards (4-8-4) have just two league wins in their last 14 fixtures, but the confidence gained from the win vs. United could be the turning point in a relatively dismal season.

"It was really exciting, we took the initiative and really made them play," Wizards defender Jimmy Conrad said. "We didn't allow them the time to do the things they like to do. We know it is their pre-season, but we knew we would get their best, but to be able to take it to them early was exciting."

Toronto FC (6-5-5) is streaking as well, with only one league loss in its last 10 fixtures, but a 1-5-1 road record combined with a disappointing 1-1 draw at home in its last league fixture doesn't have the Reds to confident heading into the game.

"Probably the most important part of the game [vs. Dallas on July 24] is the last 20 minutes, especially when you get on top and you score a good goal," TFC coach Preki told mlssoccer.com. "And then, once again, we found a way to give away a soft goal. That's a worrying thing. I think we're lacking concentration in the box."

The disappointing result came a week after falling to the expansion Philadelphia Union, 2-1 on the road.

"We didn't win our individual battles and we must pick the intensity up a notch when we defend those set pieces, we gotta get better," Toronto goalkeeper Stephan Frei said. "We always work on set pieces and if I had the answers we wouldn't be in the position that we are now, so we have to just keep working on it and get better at it."

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.